Ethereum has entered a consolidation phase after a strong recovery from the $1.5k zone.
The cryptocurrency is now trading slightly below $2.5k, remaining relatively firm despite repeated testing of the upper end of its recent range. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves continue to decline, pointing to a potentially constructive supply-side environment.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
The daily structure has improved significantly over the past few weeks. ETH broke out from the extended base around the $1.9K area and then reclaimed the $2.1K area, which had previously been major resistance.
The breakout was particularly strong, with ETH moving almost vertically from around $1.9k to $2.5k. The price has since settled above the moving averages shown on the chart, with the 100 and 200 day moving averages trending upward. This shows that the broader trend is shifting from a recovery to a potentially bullish structure.
ETH is now trading within a significant resistance zone around $2.4K to $2.5K, with the current price near $2,470,000. The market has tested this area several times without a decisive daily breakout, making it the key level to watch. A sustained move above $2.5k could pave the way for the next resistance zone, which lies around $3.3k.
On the other hand, the first important support is the old breakout zone around $2.1k. As long as ETH remains above this region, the recent structural improvement remains intact. The daily RSI is also noteworthy, as it has risen significantly from the deeply low levels seen during the June low, but has returned below the traditional overbought threshold.
This portends a potential consolidation or correction until the market cools and new buying pressure appears.
ETH/USDT 4-hour chart
The 4-hour chart shows a much clearer consolidation structure. Following the explosive move from the $1.9K area, ETH moved sideways in a range of around $2.35K to $2.55K.
Repeated reactions from the upper end of this range suggest that sellers remain active around $2.45,000 to $2.5,000, while buyers have consistently defended the lower boundary near $2,350,000 to $2.4,000. ETH is currently hovering around the middle of the range as indecision is also evident in the 4-hour RSI, which is hovering around 50.
A confirmed breakout above $2.5K would strengthen the continuation pattern and potentially expose higher resistance levels. Conversely, a break below $2.4K would suggest that the consolidation is turning into a deeper correction, with the $2.250 demand zone becoming the next major area of interest.
On-Chain Analysis
The foreign exchange reserves chart provides an interesting backdrop to the technical picture. Ethereum’s exchange reserves have declined steadily from over 21 million ETH in 2025 to around 14.9 million ETH currently, even as ETH has recovered as high as $2.4k.
Foreign exchange reserves measure the amount of ETH held on centralized exchanges. A persistent decline generally means that fewer coins are immediately available on exchanges for potential sale, although the metric alone does not prove that investors are accumulating.
The divergence is particularly notable in the latter part of the chart. ETH has strongly recovered from its previous lows while foreign exchange reserves have continued to decline. This suggests that the supply available on exchanges has not increased alongside the price recovery.
From a market structure perspective, this can be favorable if demand continues to grow. With less ETH on exchanges, a sustained increase in spot demand could potentially facilitate price increases. However, consider the downward trend in reserves as a supporting factor rather than a standalone bullish signal.
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