XRP may need to fall towards a long-standing historical demand zone against Bitcoin (BTC) before it can begin its next period of major outperformance.
Analyst ChartNerd disputes the common view that XRP is simply following BTC, suggesting that investors expecting an immediate recovery could be getting ahead of themselves.
XRP’s historic outperformance started from a single area
In a clip shared on X, ChartNerd superimposed XRP/BTC on the XRP/USD monthly chart and marked a green demand zone at the bottom of the pair’s range. According to him, the strongest catch-up rallies historically began after the pair returned to this zone.
The first notable example comes from 2014, between April and July, after XRP/USD bottomed around June of the same year before forming a higher low, which ultimately led to the 2017-2018 rally.
There was another such pattern in October 2020 and January 2021. Then, XRP had already established its lowest price before entering another period of relative strength against BTC, although the leading cryptocurrency eventually reached a new all-time high, unlike XRP. Nevertheless, the Ripple token has seen a substantial catch-up.
The same was true between April and October 2024, the analyst noted, and this occurred before XRP’s march to its July 2025 high, when it broke records to reach $3.65. However, he was candid about XRP’s long-term performance, pointing out that it underperformed Bitcoin for at least 8 years, with BTC recording successive ATHs before XRP was able to surpass its 2018 high.
The market watcher also highlighted a resistance level that has rejected XRP/BTC multiple times since 2020, including at the 2021 and 2025 highs. And with the pair still producing lower highs, ChartNerd believes that before XRP can outperform again, it will need to visit the historic demand zone again.
October performance adds to bearish scenario
At the time of writing, CoinGecko data indicated that XRP was trading at around $1.25, roughly the same place it was 24 hours ago, but down almost 2% in seven days and down almost 16% month-over-month. In one year, the world’s fifth cryptocurrency has lost half of its value, while its current price is around 65% lower than its all-time high.
Interestingly, even though XRP fell by double digits in October, spot ETFs associated with it attracted just under $19 million, making this the seventh consecutive month of positive flows, although last month’s figure was well below the $121 million and $159 million recorded in September and August respectively.
Meanwhile, ChartNerd warned that if the market emerges from a bearish phase, then capital could turn to BTC first, with XRP’s strongest flows typically arriving later in the OG asset’s cycle, which would force XRP bulls to first face another period of weakness against Bitcoin before the next significant rally.
The article Why XRP May Have to Fall Against Bitcoin Before Winning Again: Analyst appeared first on CryptoPotato.
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