Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Surpasses $84,000 – Is $90,000 the Next Target?

Bitcoin retreats towards $86,000 after buyers once again defended the $80,000 near-term demand zone, with BTC trading near $85,000. This rebound comes as markets assess the probability of a further increase by the Fed at the end of October meeting at around 25%, after September’s quarter-point increase. Meanwhile, the NVM ratio reached its highest level since early 2026, indicating that BTC may be overvalued in terms of network activity.

Bitcoin price analysis: the daily chart

BTC continues to trade within the ascending channel that defined the recovery from late June lows near $58,000. The rally took the price into the $86,000-$90,000 supply zone, where the February sell-off began. Two attempts to breach this zone only produced gains towards $87,000 as the market was rejected lower.

The structure remains constructive as long as Bitcoin holds above the channel’s midpoint, currently near $80,000. A decisive daily close above $86,000 would be needed to break into the supply zone and pave the way towards $90,000.

However, losing the channel’s midline would shift attention to the weekly order block from $75,000 to $78,000, which was the base of the September rally. Below, the channel’s lower boundary near $72,000 provides final structural support before the recovery channel is invalidated.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart

The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin in a short-term ascending channel from the mid-September low near $75,000. After the October 6 rejection of $86,000, the price began to make lower highs. However, each drop was absorbed by the $80,000 demand zone, which now converges with the channel’s lower trendline.

BTC is currently pressing against the 84k-84.3k supply zone created by the October 12 lower high. A clear break above would end the short-term streak of lower highs and bring the 85.6K-86.6K zone, the origin of the October 6 sell-off, into play.

A rejection of the $84,000 level would likely send the price back towards the same $80,000 demand zone. Loss of this area and the lower trendline would expose the $75,000 region, mentioned in the daily time frame analysis. Nonetheless, with the price creating a higher low on the 4-hour chart, the market appears to have a valid chance of surpassing $84,000.

On-Chain Analysis

The NVM ratio on CryptoQuant compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the square of its daily active addresses. It is based on Metcalfe’s Law, which states that the value of a network increases with the number of users. Active addresses act as an indicator of actual economic usage, so a rising ratio suggests valuation is outpacing this activity.

The ratio’s 30-day EMA peaked above 4.5 during Bitcoin’s 2025 run to its all-time high. It rose back towards 4.4 in January 2026, shortly before the February sell-off to $65,000. After falling to around 3.0 in August, the indicator has rebounded to around 4.1, although BTC is still trading around a third below its peak.

This is not a sell signal in itself, as ETFs and custodians move much of Bitcoin’s activity off-chain and likely drive the ratio higher over time. Nonetheless, the high reading implies thinner valuation support from network usage, making the $80,000 demand zone even more important to hold in the near term.