Bitcoin closed a weekly candle above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, Galaxy’s Alex Thorn reported on September 21, 2026, after the cryptocurrency rallied above $81,000.
The recovery places BTC at a historically important technical level, although past cycles offer no guarantee that the June low will hold.
Bitcoin recovers a level that capped previous rallies
Thorn has tracked the 50-week moving average as a ceiling during bear markets, and in an August research report he explain that Bitcoin had repeatedly struggled to regain the line during previous downturns.
Now he is adage that the resistance finally gave way.
“BTC CLOSES THE WEEK ABOVE THE 50-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 45 WEEKS,” he wrote. “Regaining the 50W MA has historically served as strong confirmation that the bear market lows have “arrived.”
The historical record is remarkable, but it comes with a caveat. Thorn’s study found that in four of five completed bear markets that fell short of the 50-week average, the first weekly close above that average was not followed by any lower lows. The exception was the 2021-2022 downturn, when BTC briefly recovered to the average twice before falling further.
But according to the analyst, the current slowdown remains temporary, and a single weekly close above a moving average cannot establish that a new bull market is underway.
However, Joe Consorti, another market observer, offered a more optimistic interpretation: while writing that a close above average historically had a 75% chance of hitting cycle lows, rising to 100% if we exclude the Covid crash.
“The bear is killed. Welcome (temporarily) to the bull market,” he posted on X.
Where is BTC currently?
The latest Bitcoin price data puts it above $81,000, up about 1% in 24 hours and almost 5% over seven days. The monthly gain is around 4%, while BTC remains almost 30% lower over the past year and 35% below its October 2025 all-time high.
The move follows a turbulent week, in which the OG crypto fell to $75,000 after the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, before recovering despite a 25 basis point hike from the Federal Reserve to 3.75%-4% and an increase from the Bank of Japan to 1.25%, which marked a 31-year high.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted that the price had climbed even as prediction markets reduced the chances of CLARITY moving forward. The rebound also brought renewed attention to the $82,000 zone, where BTC’s advance stalled over the weekend.
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