The next 28 days will be filled with major macroeconomic catalysts that could reshape interest rate expectations and inject new volatility into bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
After the release of PCE and employment data last week, the focus is once again on the Federal Reserve, which, ahead of the next FOMC meeting at the end of the month, still has to digest more information, including the CPI numbers.
Inflation takes center stage (once again)
The first major date to watch is October 7, when the central bank will release the minutes of the previous FOMC meeting held on September 15-16, during which it raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years. The paper is expected to provide further insight into policymakers’ thinking and, perhaps more importantly, how they view the path forward.
The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes next and will be released on October 14. It remains one of the most closely watched macroeconomic publications for risky assets. An upside surprise has historically strengthened the case for tighter monetary policy, while a more moderate reading could produce the opposite reaction.
A day later comes another crucial inflation data point, with the release of the September Producer Price Index (PPI). The report measures price changes from the perspective of domestic producers and can offer additional evidence on underlying inflationary pressures.
September retail sales will also be announced on this day, making it a particularly important date. Strong consumer spending could reinforce the view that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite tight monetary conditions, and vice versa.
Focus on
The most important event of the month will take place on October 28, when the Federal Reserve concludes its two-day FOMC meeting, with the policy statement expected at 2:00 p.m. ET and Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference scheduled a half hour later.
This combination has pretty obvious implications for risk on assets like bitcoin. Beyond the rate decision itself, which could be priced in before then, markets will be watching Warsh’s language to see whether the central bank believes further tightening is necessary.
However, just a day after investors digest the Fed’s decision, the United States will release two very important reports: the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and September personal income and spending, which includes the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge.
The timing makes the last week of the month particularly important. The September PCE numbers will come too late to influence the October FOMC decision, but they could immediately reshape expectations for the final central bank meeting of the year.
Furthermore, October is the greenest month in BTC history, which could lead to additional volatility and possibly gains, although as we know, history is not an indication of future price action.
October Could Be Wild for Bitcoin: 5 Events Every Crypto Trader Should Watch appeared first on CryptoPotato.
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