Permissionless prediction markets launch on hyperliquid

Deployments without HIP-4 authorization I reached the main networkmuch faster than expected.

As of Saturday, anyone with 500,000 HYPE can now launch their own results markets. We already covered the parameters of permissionless deployments a few weeks ago, and since then, few rules have changed.

1. The required stake remains the same at 500,000 hypelocked for six months and slashable for poorly defined or poorly regulated markets.
2. Each deployer can currently have 100 results deployed simultaneously while deploying up to 500 new results per day. Once the result is set, its location becomes available again. This is just a launch cap: Hyperliquide hope to expand this up to 1,000 simultaneous results and 5,000 daily deployments.
3. Deployers remain responsible for define and regulate markets according to the criteria of their model.
4. For now, HIP-4 markets are effectively denominated in USDC.
5. Only markets falling within predetermined outcome modelsapproved by the validators, can be put online.
6. Deployers can collect up to 50% trading fees generated by their markets.

This last restriction is actually the main difference between HIP-4 and HIP-3 authorizationless deployment.

During the authorized phase of HIP-4, validators determined and deployed individual markets themselves. Now, validators instead approve reusable market structures, or templates, that deployers can use to launch individual markets without further validator votes.

Additionally, compared to testnet, permissionless deployment currently has a narrower scope. Seven registration templates are currently approved on mainnet: binaryPrice, priceTouch, scalarPrice, policyRateDecision, policyRateIncrease, policyRateDecreaseAnd policyRateNoChange. Functionally, this represents fewer than seven distinct market types, since the policy rate models work together to create multiple outcome questions.

Authorized markets therefore revolve around finance, covering price action and policy decisions rather than (for now) also including the sports markets which catalyzed HIP-4’s growth during the World Cup.

What’s live now

There are currently two HIP-3 deployers, the first of which is Result. Currently, they support financial markets covering crypto as well as stocks, indices, commodities and economic events, including markets related to BTC, HYPE, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Gold, Silver, WTI and the September Fed decision.

To celebrate the launch, they also revealed a $1 million liquidity programstarting with $50,000 in USDC rewards per week in eligible markets, although this unfortunately remains unavailable to US users.

The second live deployer is Distortwho secured their 500,000 stake from HYPE DAT Hyperion DeFi and will share fees with them as part of the deal. The first market announced by Skew is a BTC hourly market rising/fallingalthough it has since begun rapidly rolling out others as well. This already places it in the same broad price prediction territory as the canonical markets deployed by the Hyperliquid validator from the authorized phase of HIP-4.

And overlap is entirely permitted here, which means that different manufacturers can offer effectively identical markets side by side.

Additionally, even though permissionless deployments are upon us, canonical marketplaces will not disappear and their offerings may even expand in the future, although this expansion will be limited.

Hyperliquid said validators should ideally deploy less than 10 results or questions per year. Thus, existing canonical markets remain alongside new unauthorized markets, while fees on markets deployed by the validator are now on, contributing to Buybacks and Burns HYPE.

What comes next

The most obvious catalyst from here is the expansion of the model set.

We can imagine sports coming soon given its importance in forecasting market volume. And as we tiptoe into football and then basketball season (the latter can’t come soon enough for me).

Then there is Trade.xyz. Unit Labs has been move HYPE in pieces of 500,000 in a way that strongly suggests it is preparing for HIP-4, but it has not confirmed a deployment.

It’s hard not to see their success with HIP-3 also preparing them for HIP-4, given that they likely have the capital and distribution to deploy deep outcomes markets on day one. I have a sneaking suspicion that their rollout will coincide with a sports model, although that’s just speculation on my part. Sports has been one of the largest use cases for HIP-4 during its validator rollout phase and would be an interesting opportunity for the larger HIP-3 vendor to pursue.

Beyond sport, it will be interesting to see if and how quickly we obtain electoral markets. As I wrote, I think they represent a big opportunity, supported by the fact that Kalshi’s Midterms Hub 2026 has already generated around $710 million in volume with Election Day still two months away. HIP-4 capturing part of it would be a significant victory.

HIP-4 must prepare for bankless midterms

HIP-4 permissionless deployments are live on testnet. Hyperliquids should make sure they hit mainnet by midterms.

Finally, this all seems pretty bullish for USDC. More HIP-4 markets mean another place for capital to sit in USDC on Hyperliquid.

Ultimately, permissionless deployment eliminates HIP-4’s biggest bottleneck: hyperliquid itself no longer has to decide and deploy virtually every market user who might want to trade. It’s now primarily a question of how quickly validators expand the set of models and which deployers are best positioned to capitalize when they do. Football, basketball, and midterms give us three very obvious opportunities to find out.